Roger Federer v Rafael Nadal in their 23rd Miami Open 2017 finals
Federer is a two-time winner at the Masters 1000 event, while 14-time Grand Slam champion Nadal will compete in his fifth final having never lifted the title.
It promises to be a splendid spectacle, with two juggernauts of the game clashing for a third time in 2017 after not meeting once in the previous year.
Here Metro.co.uk takes a look at the contest and offers a prediction as to who will win the Miami Open.
How did they reach the final?
Federer has had a tough route to the final, which has again highlighted just how high a level he’s playing at currently at.
He impressively discarded Juan Martin del Potro in a tricky early draw, while Frances Tiafoe and Roberto Bautista Agut were also beaten on his way to the last eight.
The 35-year-old was then forced to survive two match points against a resilient Tomas Berdych before competing in one of the best matches of the year so far – a three-hour epic with Australian Nick Kyrgios.
Federer route to Miami Open final
R1: Bye
R2: 7-6 (7-2) 6-3 Tiafoe
R3: 6-3 6-4 Del Potro
R4: 7-6 (7-5) 7-6 (7-4) Bautista Agut
QF: 6-2 3-6 7-6 (8-6) Berdych
SF: 7-6 (11-9) 6-7 (9-11) 7-6 (7-5) Kyrgios
R2: 7-6 (7-2) 6-3 Tiafoe
R3: 6-3 6-4 Del Potro
R4: 7-6 (7-5) 7-6 (7-4) Bautista Agut
QF: 6-2 3-6 7-6 (8-6) Berdych
SF: 7-6 (11-9) 6-7 (9-11) 7-6 (7-5) Kyrgios
To say Nadal’s draw has been more comfortable than Federer’s would be an understatement – he’s certainly had an easier time of it.
With other dangerous seeds Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori struggling with injury, Nadal has had a relatively stress-free run to the final.
The only seed the Spaniard was forced to take on was Jack Sock, who was routinely dispatched.
Nadal route to Miami Open final
R1: Bye
R2: 6-3 6-4 Sela
R3: 0-6 6-2 6-3 Kohlschreiber
R4: 6-4 7-6 (7-4) Mahut
QF: 6-2 6-3 Sock
SF: 6-1 7-5 Fognini
R2: 6-3 6-4 Sela
R3: 0-6 6-2 6-3 Kohlschreiber
R4: 6-4 7-6 (7-4) Mahut
QF: 6-2 6-3 Sock
SF: 6-1 7-5 Fognini
How’s their form been in 2017?
The pair have been the best performers thus far but it’s Federer who has truly exceeded all expectations.
After taking six months away from the sport to allow full recovery from a knee injury, the Swiss maestro has roared back to ATP Tour action winning both the Australian Open and Indian Wells.
His only blip to date came in a shock loss to then world No. 116 Evgeny Donskoy in Dubai but Federer is leading the Race To London and will return to No. 4 in the world with a win over Nadal.
Federer titles in 2017
Australian Open – 6-4 3-6 6-1 3-6 6-3 Nadal
Indian Wells – 6-4 7-5 Wawrinka
Indian Wells – 6-4 7-5 Wawrinka
The Spaniard’s form will also see him return to the top 5, although he’s not managed to lift a title in the opening three months of the year.
He’s suffered final defeats to Federer in Melbourne and Sam Querrey in Acapulco, while his only other losses have come to the Swiss in Indian Wells and Milos Raonic in Brisbane.
What’s their head-to-head record like?
While Nadal leads their overall head-to-head 23-13, the tide has certainly turned in recent times.
Federer has won their last three meetings – something that had never happened at any previous point in their rivalry – and blew the 30-year-old away at Indian Wells.
Nadal-Federer head-to-head
Overall h2h
Federer 13 – 23 Nadal
Hard court h2h
Federer 9 – 9 Nadal
Last five
2017: Indian Wells R16 – Federer 6-2 6-3
2017: Australian Open F – Federer 6-4 3-6 5-1 3-6 6-3
2015: Basel F – Federer 6-3 5-7 6-3
2014: Australian Open SF – Nadal 7-6 6-3 6-3
2013: World Tour Finals SF – Nadal 7-5 6-3
2017: Australian Open F – Federer 6-4 3-6 5-1 3-6 6-3
2015: Basel F – Federer 6-3 5-7 6-3
2014: Australian Open SF – Nadal 7-6 6-3 6-3
2013: World Tour Finals SF – Nadal 7-5 6-3
Miami meetings
2011: Semi-finals – Nadal 6-3 6-2
2005: Final – Federer 2-6 6-7 7-6 6-3 6-1
2004: Round three – Nadal 6-3 6-3
2005: Final – Federer 2-6 6-7 7-6 6-3 6-1
2004: Round three – Nadal 6-3 6-3
Their first ever match, back in 2004, was in Miami, with Nadal coming out on top but Federer exacted revenge in their only final meeting in Florida just a year later.
Nadal leads their head-to-head in Crandon Park 2-1 overall, winning their most recent contest in the semi-finals in 2011 and he has always won the opening two sets (his only defeat came in a best-of-five final).
Who’s the favourite?
Federer is ever so slightly favoured with the bookies at 8/11, while a Swiss win in straight sets is viewed as the most likely scenario.
Here’s a full look at the odds…
Federer-Nadal odds (Sky Bet)
8/11 – Federer to win
11/10 – Nadal to win
7/4 – Federer in 2
3/1 – Federer in 3
5/2 – Nadal in 2
10/3 – Nadal in 3
11/10 – Nadal to win
7/4 – Federer in 2
3/1 – Federer in 3
5/2 – Nadal in 2
10/3 – Nadal in 3
What have they both said?
Federer: I feel like there is a mountain to climb in Rafa. He’s hasn’t won this event before. He’s definitely feeling fresher than I feel right now. But that’s not a problem. I’ll be ready on Sunday.
‘It’s definitely going to be very special playing Rafa here again. I’m thrilled for him that he came back as well as he did after the comeback and the struggles that he had last year.
‘It feels like old times. We’re playing each other every week now. We can’t get enough of each other. Hopefully it’s not our last match.’
Nadal: ‘It’s great to be in the final… For me, doesn’t matter the opponent.
‘I am happy to be in that final again, and I am excited to play another final of an important event.’
Prediction?
The pair are notoriously difficult to split and it’s no different on this occasion – particularly with their very even record on this surface.
Federer’s run to this stage has been the more gruelling of the two but he should be well rested considering it’s only a best-of-three set tournament and he’ll have had a day’s rest prior to the final.
The slower hard court would traditionally favour Nadal, who will hope to keep the points as long as possible and really grind Federer down, but the Swiss is playing so well at the moment that he’s completely dictating matches and playing quick points at a high tempo.
Whoever wins the first set will likely come out on top, something that’s been the case in eight of their last nine matches, and most people will fancy Federer to get out the traps quicker.
But I’ll be bold, go against the recent form book and back Nadal to exact some revenge on Federer for two defeats this year.
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