The fact checked edition of Donald Trump’s speech
Trump’s speech, intended as a rallying cry to Republicans as they try to push through divisive legislation on healthcare, taxes and immigration, appears to to contain some exaggerations, embellishments and, well, lies.
So, to save you the hassle, here’s a fact-checked version of Trump’s 2017 Congress speech:
Immigration
The controversial POTUS gave a one-sided account of the costs and benefits to the economy from immigration – ignoring the upside.
What Trump said: ‘According to the National Academy of Sciences, our current immigration system costs America’s taxpayers many billions of dollars a year.’
The facts: That’s not exactly what that report says. It says immigrants ‘contribute to government finances by paying taxes and add expenditures by consuming public services’.
The report did find that first-generation immigrants are more costly to governments than their native-born counterparts, primarily at the state and local level, but children of immigrants ‘are among the strongest economic and fiscal contributors in the population’.
Taking that into consideration, the report suggests the ‘long-run fiscal impact’ of immigrants and their children would likely be more positive ‘if their role in sustaining labour force growth and contributing to innovation and entrepreneurial activity were taken into account’.
Million dollar deal
The billionaire reality TV star-turned-leader also took credit for massive cost-savings in a fighter jet contract.
What Trump said: ‘We’ve saved taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars by bringing down the price’ of the F-35 jet fighter.
The facts: The cost savings were secured in full or largely before Trump became president.
The head of the Air Force programme announced significant price reductions in the contract for the Lockheed F-35 fighter jet on December 19 – an entire month before Trump’s inauguration.
Pentagon managers took action before the election to save money on the contract. Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with aerospace consulting firm Teal Group, said there is no evidence of any additional cost savings as a result of Trump’s actions.
Trump did tweet about the cost, though weeks before he met the company’s chief executive about it.
The President also claimed he will create thousands of ‘American jobs’.
What Trump said: ‘Since my election, Ford, Fiat-Chrysler, General Motors, Sprint, Softbank, Lockheed, Intel, Walmart and many others have announced that they will invest billions of dollars in the United States and will create tens of thousands of new American jobs.”
The facts: It is quite unlikely Trump is the sole or even primary reason for the expected vacancies he mentions.
Many of the jobs announced are reflections of decisions made by the corporations which pre-date his election.
In the case of Intel, construction of a factory in Chandler, Arizona, referred to by Trump, began during Barack Obama’s presidency.
The project was delayed due to insufficient demand for Intel’s high-powered computer chips, but the company now expects to finish the factory within four years because it anticipates growth.
It’s also worth mentioning that even as some companies create jobs, others are laying off workers.
The best measure of whether more jobs are being created is the monthly employment report issued by the Labour Department, which nets out those gains and losses.
The department will issue its report for February, the first full month of Trump’s term, on March 10.
Taxes
Trump has also vowed to deliver on his campaign promises of tax relief for middle class families.
What Trump said: ‘We will provide massive tax relief for the middle class.’
The facts: This is a difficult one as Trump has provided little detail on how this would actually happen.
Independent analyses of his campaign’s tax proposals found that most of the benefits would flow to the wealthiest families – rather than the middle classes.
The richest 1% would see an average tax cut of nearly 215,000 dollars (£173,000) per year, while the middle fifth of the population would get a cut of just 1,010 dollars (£815), according to the Tax Policy Centre, a joint project by the Brookings Institution and Urban Institute.
Unemployment
Trump’s take on employment is technically accurate, although it’s worth a closer look
What Trump said: ‘Ninety-four million Americans are out of the labour force.’
The facts: That is true, but for the vast majority of them, it’s because they choose to be.
The figure quoted by Trump includes everyone aged 16 and older who does not have a job and is not looking for one, so it includes retirees, parents who are staying home to raise children, and high school and college students who are studying rather than working.
Those groups are unlikely to work regardless of the state of the economy.
As the huge baby-boomer generation reach retirement age, the population of those out of the labour force is increasing and will continue to do so, most economists forecast.
It is true that some of those out of the workforce are of working age and have given up looking for work, but that number is probably a small fraction of the 94 million Trump cited.
Then Trump discussed the Affordable Care Act, parts of which he’s set to repeal.
Obamacare
What Trump said: ‘Obamacare is collapsing … imploding Obamacare disaster.’
The facts: There are problems with the 2010 health care law, but whether it is collapsing is hotly disputed.
One of the two major components of the Affordable Care Act has seen a spike in premiums and a drop in participation from insurers, but the other component, equally important, seems to be working fairly well, even if its costs are a concern.
Trump and congressional Republicans want to repeal the entire thing, which would risk leaving millions of people uninsured if the replacement plan has shortcomings.
Obamacare offers subsidised private health insurance along with a state option to expand Medicaid for low-income people. Together, the two arms of the programme cover more than 20 million people.
Republican governors whose states have expanded Medicaid are trying to find a way to persuade Congress and the administration to keep the expansion, and maybe even build on it, while imposing limits on the long-term costs of Medicaid.
Around 12.2 million people signed up for this year despite the Trump administration’s threats to repeal the law, according to AP.
Defence
President Trump has pledged to up defence budgets with the biggest boost in history.
What Trump said: His budget plan will offer ‘one of the largest increases in national defence spending in American history’.
The facts: Three times in recent years, Congress raised defence budgets by larger percentages than the 54 billion dollars, or the 10%, increase Trump promises.
The base defense budget grew by 41 billion dollars, or 14.3%, in 2002; by 37 billion dollars, or 11.3%, in 2003, and by 47 billion dollars, or 10.9%, in 2008, according to Defence Department figures.
Terrorism
During his speech, Trump claimed that the majority of terror-related offences in the US are committed by foreign nationals.
What Trump said: ‘According to data provided by the Department of Justice, the vast majority of individuals convicted for terrorism-related offences since 9/11 came here from outside of our country.
‘We have seen the attacks at home – from Boston to San Bernardino to the Pentagon and yes, even the World Trade Centre.’
The facts: It is unclear which exact Justice Department data he’s citing, but the most recent government information does not back up his claim.
Just over half the people Trump talks about were born in the US, according to Homeland Security Department research revealed last week.
That report said of 82 people the government determined were inspired by a foreign terrorist group to attempt or carry out an attack in the US, just over half were native-born.
Even the attacks Trump singled out were not entirely the work of foreigners. Syed Rizwan Farook, who along with his Pakistani wife killed 14 people in the 2015 attack in San Bernardino, California, was born in Chicago.
It is true that in the immediate aftermath of September 11, the FBI’s primary concern was with terrorists from overseas feared to be plotting attacks in the US, though that is no longer the case.
The FBI and the Justice Department have been preoccupied with violent extremists from inside the US who are inspired by the calls to violence and mayhem of the Islamic State group.
The Justice Department has prosecuted scores of IS-related cases since 2014, and many of the defendants are US citizens.
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